In the week ahead the U.S. equity market, broadly represented by the S&P 500 index, will be looking for direction as the level reaches its 200 day moving average (MA), which had served as firm support before dropping below that level on May 22, 2010 for the first time since mid July 2009. By our analysis, markets are now undergoing a sentiment shift, in turn morphing the 200 day MA into a resistance; twice tested but not yet broken since crossing below on May 22.

While history may paint our stance with the heavy brush of criticism, we’re going on the record to call increased volatillity and a lower close on the S&P 500 by week’s end. We feel it is our duty to yell from the rooftops just how treacherous the current developments in world markets have become. While we won’t stamp corny metaphors to the ailing sovereign debt markets, wasting your time with visions of ships and storms, we do pray that readers appreciate the urgency of this week’s Weekly Spectrum.

The January 18 – 22 business week will begin one day late, due to Martin Luther King Jr holiday, leaving only Tuesday to Friday for market action to be staged. The most notable economic data releases will be the Housing Market Index (HMI) and Housing Starts numbers; while Treasury International Capital data, the Producer's Price
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The last five days before the shortened Christmas week may bring tidings of inflation, Bernanke rhetoric, and volatile Friday trading as investors unwrap both producer price (PPI) and consumer price indexes (CPI), foreshadowing Bernanke language, and a "quad witching" day on friday. We will get a taste testing of government debt as the 4 week, 3
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