This week will likely begin with some relief for the Euro, on G20 plans to cut costs in Euro states, while the hangover from Friday’s U.S. Jobs data could continue into a “no news” Monday trading session. Look for pops to add to shorts early in the week, but keep stops tight leading into Jobless claims and Friday’s data.

There are several positions we had been waiting for and on Friday the limits were hit and trades were placed. We are exceedingly confident about these three trades, and we feel that it’s worth our readers’ time to take a peak at where we’re putting our cash. This “trade flash” will target those three trades.

Crude Oil has reluctantly played follow the leader with U.S. equities for much of the past 12 months. More recently, fundamentals took a back seat to short term speculation as risk takers drove the price of hot button commodities up with stocks. Crude has been in a holding range between $80 and $87/barrel for all of March and April, but in the past two trading sessions NYMEX WTI crude plunged directly from the top to the bottom of that range.

U.S. stocks looked unusually strong on Friday as two major factors concerning short term risk in global markets changed dramatically. The stagnant housing market and uncertainty over a viable path to solvency in Greece, which have been weighing heavily on global markets, seem to be less threatening if Friday’s data were judge. Technicals remain extremely overbought in commodities and equities as markets now face Bernanke and Q1 GDP this week.

Supporting our highest conviction trade yet, we now see fundamentals, sentiment, and technicals aligned for a significant correction in Crude Oil prices. While DS partners already hold a position in DTO, we are moving to formally call a short term WTI Crude Continuous Spot price target at $70. Below we explain in detail our thesis
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The January 18 – 22 business week will begin one day late, due to Martin Luther King Jr holiday, leaving only Tuesday to Friday for market action to be staged. The most notable economic data releases will be the Housing Market Index (HMI) and Housing Starts numbers; while Treasury International Capital data, the Producer's Price
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Crude Oil The oil issue has been speculative to this point. It's hard to argue against 90 dollar oil when we saw 145 in July 2008, but the fundamentals aren't congruent with the price growth we've seen and this trader finds it easier to argue FOR $60/ barrel oil. Crude supply in the U.S. remains
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Earnings season officially began, as the first member of the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average to grab Q4 2009 earnings headlines, Alcoa (AA), reported a net profit of $0.01 EPS on Monday, January 11. The shortfall to the $0.06 EPS market consensus was explained by CEO Klaus Kleinfield by the unexpected weakness in the dollar,
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Monday Three and six month treasury bonds will be auctioned at 11:30 am Monday and will kick off the monthly test of the demand for short term investment security. The dollar is becoming stronger and rumors, spawned from the announcement of Bond King Bill Gross's "Lehman high" cash levels, are beginning to spur renewed debate
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Few expect the U.S. Federal Reserve's FOMC to announce any change to the current monetary policy. The Fed Funds rate target is expected to stay at 0.25%, despite effective rates closer to 0.1%, while language will promise that purchase programs of private debt and Fannie/Freddie mortgage products are soon to wind down. Conditions of the
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