Trade Strategy

Market Response to Fed Policy

Dec 16th, 2009 | By Rob

Few expect the U.S. Federal Reserve's FOMC to announce any change to the current monetary policy. The Fed Funds rate target is expected to stay at 0.25%, despite effective rates closer to 0.1%, while language will promise that purchase programs of private debt and Fannie/Freddie mortgage products are soon to wind down. Conditions of the
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Caution: Long Term Treasury Debt Weakness

Dec 12th, 2009 | By Rob

The 10 Year Treasury Note is the benchmark debt product of the Treasury and as the benchmark it's meant to represent the strength of the U.S. Treasury's balance sheet. If this holds true, the current fiscal strength of the U.S. Treasury is hampered at best. Debt markets are generally much less exciting than equity markets,
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The New Direction of Crude Oil

Dec 10th, 2009 | By Rob

Last week you could have thrown a dart onto the floor of the CME and almost assuredly poked the eye out of a commodity bull. This week there's no telling who you'd maim. Blood and gore aside, the sideways pattern of the past three weeks is over as far as crude oil is concerned. The
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***Close BVN: Diamond Slice Closes Position In Beunaventura Mines***

Dec 7th, 2009 | By Rob
***Close BVN: Diamond Slice Closes Position In Beunaventura Mines***

On October 23, 2009 we endorsed a position in the Peruvian gold mining firm Beunaventura Mines (BVN) in the article titled Profiting From Volatile Crude Oil Prices and Safe Guarding Your Dollars. Since October 23, BVN has moved from $36.97 to the Friday December 4, 2009 closing price of $39.84, capturing a 7.8% gain. Continuous spot
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SPX Technicals Waning Ahead of Stacked Econ Data

Nov 25th, 2009 | By Rob

The SPX (S&P 500 Large Cap Index) technicals are signalling weakness following the November 17th 52-week-high of 1110. Since that point the index has traded in a tight 20 point range ahead of a full stack of economic reports set for release this morning. Here we will address four key technical signals which could spell
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Shorting the 10 Year Note

Nov 13th, 2009 | By Rob

The Direxion 10-Year Treasury Note 3X Bear ETN (TYO) is a leveraged ETN which is designed to move in tandem with the yield on the 10-Yr Treasury Note, opposite the price, and with three times leverage on a daily basis. Like many leveraged and inverse ETNs this one carries risks, especially when holding the product
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S&P 500 Technical Pause at 1100, “Initial Claims” Break Balance

Nov 12th, 2009 | By Rob

The broad measure of the U.S. Equity market, the S&P 500, has found it's way out of a deep hole, dug by the October Employment Situation report that toted headline unemployment at 10.2%. Perhaps giving way to the resilient tone among investors in U.S. firms, this Monday through Wednesday have announced little new economic data, yet
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Carry Trade Least of Problems For U.S. Dollar

Nov 6th, 2009 | By Rob

While we all first learned that bonds and stocks perform "inversely" of each other, because bonds are relatively safe while equity shares are more risky, it should be understood that this is firstly and finally a ridiculous adage to waste a moment recalling. The oversimplified credence should, and soon will be, destroyed once and for all as long term
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Profit From Weak U.S. Balance Sheet & Economic Risk, Short the 10-Yr Treasury Note

Nov 4th, 2009 | By Rob

One of most common and least sexy trades throughout the global hemispheres of market movers is the U.S. Treasury Bonds trade. Those brave enough to dive long into equities or commodities on the shoulders of the current are both delusional and progressively dwindling in numbers. This has rebuilt a twinge of respectability among current traders, as a "topping out" formation is building
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Profiting From Volatile Crude Oil Prices and Safe Guarding Your Dollars

Oct 23rd, 2009 | By Rob

Cracking the code of deserving prices for oil futures has become an interesting game of cat and mouse between the bulls citing a momentous trend of dollar destruction gaining momentum and fundamentalists hammering home the demand side of the argument. True, inflationary environments for currencies allow for the relative value of commodities priced in the domestic
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