Macro Analysis

Public Finance in China: The Lurking Costs of Growth

Mar 16th, 2010 | By Rob
Public Finance in China: The Lurking Costs of Growth

As the ill-effects of a global financial crisis became evident to world leaders in late fall 2008, export driven economies with surplussed coffers of U.S. dollars did the obvious. They used the cash to stimulate their economies. In one specific nation, the Premier’s words fell like heavy boots on an ant hill, as decrees began to waterfall down from superiors to
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China’s Growth: Blessing Or Curse?

Jan 28th, 2010 | By Rob

On a positive note for Japan, export growth in December surprised economists by growing at 12.1%, compared to the 7.6% forecast, for the first time since the collapse of Lehman in 2008. Breaking down the numbers, analysts were equally unsurprised to learn which market was responsible for the rapid growth. If I’m hitting my target
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Housing and Consumer in Focus, Christmas Week

Dec 21st, 2009 | By Rob

Monday Three and six month treasury bonds will be auctioned at 11:30 am Monday and will kick off the monthly test of the demand for short term investment security. The dollar is becoming stronger and rumors, spawned from the announcement of Bond King Bill Gross's "Lehman high" cash levels, are beginning to spur renewed debate
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Producers, Housing and Employment in Focus

Nov 30th, 2009 | By Rob

Market movers will get their fair share of economic data in the November 30, 2009 week, following a shocking deferral by the Dubai World fund of $4 billion last week. The event shocked debt costs around the world in a momentary relapse to the terror which gripped markets and sent LIBOR rates to smothering magnitudes. While
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Bernanke’s Mandate, A Contradiction

Nov 17th, 2009 | By Rob

Amidst all the hypotheses and strategies of guys like myself "probing for profits", the most recent security to have stolen the limelight must be currencies. It's no secret that the U.S. Dollar has been falling against nearly every major currency throughout the world over the past six months, however it's soon to become a bigger issue,
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Standing On The Pivot: The Past and Future U.S. Economy From A Housing Perspective

Nov 10th, 2009 | By Rob

Inevitably even the grizzlies have been watching economic indicators gaging the housing market “recovery”, as talk of a 2009 rebound in the United States has now been confirmed by 3.5% growth in the third quarter. Existing home sales bottoming, construction spending pulsing and extreme incentives for new buyers have sweetened the potential for a repeat of the 2004 housing recovery we all loved so well. Yet there remains the issue of magnitude, regarding a potential housing recovery, which may contrast that of 2004 a great deal, and could kill the lasting effects of a bottomed housing market on the broader economy. We will attempt to review and assess the American economy by result of the Housing Market from a historical and quantitative standpoint.

Profit From Weak U.S. Balance Sheet & Economic Risk, Short the 10-Yr Treasury Note

Nov 4th, 2009 | By Rob

One of most common and least sexy trades throughout the global hemispheres of market movers is the U.S. Treasury Bonds trade. Those brave enough to dive long into equities or commodities on the shoulders of the current are both delusional and progressively dwindling in numbers. This has rebuilt a twinge of respectability among current traders, as a "topping out" formation is building
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Stock Issuance, Stimulus Spending Only to Hurt Dollar as U.S. Struggles

Oct 30th, 2009 | By Rob

News out of London via the Financial Times has amplified the recent calls for institutional break-ups of incredible size and scope. Not just one but all financial institutions, once protected under the "too big to fail" sheltering efforts by governments and central banks, must now find viable core business plans to move forward. The mortgage
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