Macro Analysis
Mar 16th, 2010 |
By Rob
As the ill-effects of a global financial crisis became evident to world leaders in late fall 2008, export driven economies with surplussed coffers of U.S. dollars did the obvious. They used the cash to stimulate their economies. In one specific nation, the Premier’s words fell like heavy boots on an ant hill, as decrees began to waterfall down from superiors to
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Posted in Asia, Global Slice, Macro Analysis, Market Synopsis |
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Tags: cdo, cds, china, China asset bubble, China bubble, China decline, china demise, china fail, china failure, China GDP, China home prices 2009, china house price 2009, china overheating, china per capita gdp, China real estate, China real estate 2009, china stock market, china's debt, Chinese stocks, debt crisis, failing china, global economy, government debt, mbs, mortgage default, off balance sheet, profit
Jan 28th, 2010 |
By Rob
On a positive note for Japan, export growth in December surprised economists by growing at 12.1%, compared to the 7.6% forecast, for the first time since the collapse of Lehman in 2008. Breaking down the numbers, analysts were equally unsurprised to learn which market was responsible for the rapid growth. If I’m hitting my target
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Posted in Asia, Global Slice, Macro Analysis, Market Synopsis |
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Tags: 10.7% GDP, 2008 China GDP growth, 2009 China GDP growth, 2009 Q4 China GDP growth, Adam Smith, china, China GDP growth, Chinese expansion, Chinese stimulus, collapse of Lehman, December export, GDP, IMF, Japan, Japan deflation, Japan Export, Japan Export growth, Korea, Q4 China GDP growth, Smith, Stalin, stimulus, U.S. stimulus, World Bank
Dec 21st, 2009 |
By Rob
Monday Three and six month treasury bonds will be auctioned at 11:30 am Monday and will kick off the monthly test of the demand for short term investment security. The dollar is becoming stronger and rumors, spawned from the announcement of Bond King Bill Gross's "Lehman high" cash levels, are beginning to spur renewed debate
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Posted in Macro Analysis, Market Synopsis, Weekly Spectrum |
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Tags: 10 year treasury, 10-Year Note, Bill Gross, CME, consumer, December 2009 Consumer Sentiment, DTO, ETF, ETN, Fed Balance Sheet, FHFA House Price index, GDP revision, Goldman ICSC data, Housing, inflation, Lehman, Money Supply, new home sales, November 2009 Durable Goods Orders, November 2009 Income and Outlays report, November 2009 Personal Consumption Expenditures, PCE, Redbook data, same store sales, SCC, SDS, TYO, U.S. dollar, USD
Nov 30th, 2009 |
By Rob
Market movers will get their fair share of economic data in the November 30, 2009 week, following a shocking deferral by the Dubai World fund of $4 billion last week. The event shocked debt costs around the world in a momentary relapse to the terror which gripped markets and sent LIBOR rates to smothering magnitudes. While
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Posted in Macro Analysis, Market Synopsis, Weekly Spectrum |
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Tags: Chicago PMI, Construction spending, factory orders, ISM Manufacturing Index, Motor Vehicle Sales, October Employment report, Pending Home Sales, Productivity
Nov 17th, 2009 |
By Rob
Amidst all the hypotheses and strategies of guys like myself "probing for profits", the most recent security to have stolen the limelight must be currencies. It's no secret that the U.S. Dollar has been falling against nearly every major currency throughout the world over the past six months, however it's soon to become a bigger issue,
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Posted in Macro Analysis |
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Tags: Bernanke, china, commodity, delinquency, emerging, Equity, Fed Funds, fed mandate, foreclosure, interest rate, market, mortgage, QE, QT, quantitative easing, quantitative tightening, recession, stock, U.S. dollar, USD
Nov 10th, 2009 |
By Rob
Inevitably even the grizzlies have been watching economic indicators gaging the housing market “recovery”, as talk of a 2009 rebound in the United States has now been confirmed by 3.5% growth in the third quarter. Existing home sales bottoming, construction spending pulsing and extreme incentives for new buyers have sweetened the potential for a repeat of the 2004 housing recovery we all loved so well. Yet there remains the issue of magnitude, regarding a potential housing recovery, which may contrast that of 2004 a great deal, and could kill the lasting effects of a bottomed housing market on the broader economy. We will attempt to review and assess the American economy by result of the Housing Market from a historical and quantitative standpoint.
Posted in Industry Analysis, Macro Analysis, Market Synopsis |
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Tags: America, Case Schiller, cds, durable goods, earnings, existing home sales, Fannie, finance, Freddie, GDP, Government Expenditures, GSE, home sales, Housing, HPI, HUD, mbs, Moody, new home sales, New York Times, Originator, p/e, price, Private Inventories, profit, quantitative easing, S&P, sales, stock, U.S.
Nov 4th, 2009 |
By Rob
One of most common and least sexy trades throughout the global hemispheres of market movers is the U.S. Treasury Bonds trade. Those brave enough to dive long into equities or commodities on the shoulders of the current are both delusional and progressively dwindling in numbers. This has rebuilt a twinge of respectability among current traders, as a "topping out" formation is building
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Posted in Global Slice, Macro Analysis, Market Synopsis, Trade Strategy |
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Tags: 10 Year Treasury Note, Double Dip Recession, Long Term Debt, Market Headwind, Short Strategy, shorting treasuries, Treasury
Oct 30th, 2009 |
By Rob
News out of London via the Financial Times has amplified the recent calls for institutional break-ups of incredible size and scope. Not just one but all financial institutions, once protected under the "too big to fail" sheltering efforts by governments and central banks, must now find viable core business plans to move forward. The mortgage
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Posted in Macro Analysis, Market Synopsis, Soap Box |
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